If you’re looking for hard news of the Moroccan elections, I recommend Al Jazeera, which offers official results as well as a whole section of related stories. What I want to do here is offer a few highlights that stand out for me. The most important news is that turnout was at a record low, with only 37% of registered voters showing up at the polls. Participation was even lower in the cities at 34%, which means it was a bit higher in rural areas.
Nearly everyone was surprised to see Istiqlal, Morocco’s oldest party, come out in first place, after losing the 2002 elections to the center-left USFP. It seems like Istiqlal’s political organization, which is stronger in rural areas than the other parties, came through for them, as did their patronage network which has been distributing jobs and handouts in exchange for votes for over half a century now. Even so, their victory was far from impressive, since they managed to win only 52 of the 325 seats in Parliament, less than 1/6 of the total.
Most observers had predicted that the Justice and Development Party (PJD), which has Islamist roots, would come in first with around 40% of the vote. Instead they ended up in second place with 47 seats and only 16% of the vote. This was a big disappointment for them, since this was supposed to be the year they would finally lead a government. They only gained five seats over their 2002 showing, which is even more surprising considering that this year, they competed nationwide, while in 2002 they ran in only half the districts. Naturally, some of their supporters are wondering if the vote was honest. Al Jazeera offers this quote:
- “Dirty money has been flowing into the voting system. We have the proof and we will challenge this,” Lahcen Daoudi, PJD deputy leader, told supporters in Rabat. “It is not only sad for us, it is sad for Moroccan democracy.”
Others have suggested that one reason turnout was so low may be that voting was actually more honest than in the past, meaning that fewer false votes were counted. In that case, what happened to support for the PJD? It’s only a hunch, but I’m guessing that people who were ready to support them just a few months ago, as the best hope for fundamental reform, gave up on the process and just stayed home. My own moment of truth came with the controversy that followed the king’s speech from the throne, due to an editorial that Ahmed Reza Benchemsi wrote in rebuttal. It was clear after that that the system has no intention of changing. Al Jazeera sums it up in a few words:
- A complex voting system made it almost impossible for any group to win an outright majority, and whatever the outcome, real power will remain with the king, who is executive head of state, military chief and religious leader.
Another surprise is that the 2002 winner, the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP), fell to fifth place this year, behind two parties allied with the Palace, the Popular Movement (MP) and the National Rally of Independents (RNI). These parties won 43 and 38 seats respectively, while the USFP won only 36. One thing is clear, the USFP was punished for failing to meet people’s high expectations for change. When they took power in 2002, Moroccans were excited to see former dissidents enter the government for the first time, but five years of stagnation have taken their toll on people’s faith.
A number of smaller parties and independents round out the list. The Unified Socialist Party (PSU), which supports constitutional reform and was the choice of a number of Moroccan bloggers, won five seats along with its allies, the PADS and CNI.
One independent who scored a big victory is Fouad Ali El Himma, the king’s close friend and right hand man who spent years planning the elections from his post as the Delegate Interior Minister, only to quit his job a month ago and become a candidate himself. No one should be surprised if he ends up leading the next government. In fact, from the point of view of El Himma and the Palace, these elections succeeded brilliantly, since it will be impossible for any party to govern without a broad coalition, leaving the new Parliament even more paralyzed and pliable than the previous one.
Anyone who says this is a victory for Moroccan democracy has been smoking something. This was a victory for subtle, technocratic gaming of the system that gave the Makhzen exactly what it wanted, a free ride for five more years. I don’t see how this can be healthy in the long run, because the disillusionment bubbling beneath the surface is not going to go away, only now the safety valve is shut for five more years. The only other “winners” in this process are those who boycotted the elections altogether in order to discredit the system, since it will be hard for the powers that be to spin a 37% turnout as a vote of confidence.
UPDATE: Be sure to check out this analysis over at The Arabist by Issandr El Amrani, a Moroccan native home from Egypt for the elections. He touches on all of the same points I made above, only in more detail. He agrees with Doga and me that constitutional reform is vital before anything else can change, and he identifies the forces in Moroccan politics that support this goal:
- …the USFP offshoot PSU, the hardline wing of the PJD, the far left and the banned Adl wal Ihsan Islamist movement.
Obviously, none of these groups were winners in Friday’s elections, and the last two chose to boycott the process altogether. But this raises an interesting question. Could groups at the left end of Morocco’s political spectrum, like the PSU or the Marxist-Leninist Annahj Addimocrati, ignore their differences with Islamists like Al Adl Wal Ihsane and the Mustapha Ramid faction of the PJD, to work together on their common goal of constitutional reform? Such a marriage of refuseniks would be fascinating if it happened, but of course it won’t. And even if it did, it would be unlikely to generate the critical mass to succeed. I think El Amrani agrees, because this is his conclusion:
- Long story short: the 2007 Moroccan parliamentary elections did not take place. The low turnout suggests few cared about them, and their result means little will change for the next five years. […] But you have to wonder, beyond new highways, ports and tourism projects…where this country is heading. Banking on economic growth and technocratic savvy may work for a while, but it does not a democracy make.
You were going real good eatbees, till you said this:
“Anyone who says this is a victory for Moroccan democracy has been smoking something. This was a victory for subtle, technocratic gaming of the system that gave the Makhzen exactly what it wanted, a free ride for five more years. I don’t see how this can be healthy in the long run, because the disillusionment bubbling beneath the surface is not going to go away, only now the safety valve is shut for five more years. The only other “winners|||€ in this process are those who boycotted the elections altogether in order to discredit the system, since it will be hard for the powers that be to spin a 37% turnout as a vote of confidence.”
I’m sorry, but these are words of a pessimist if you ask me. I don’t doubt you say this with the best of intentions, the fact that you invest so much time and energy into voicing the Moroccan people’s concerns on your blog, is a clear indication that you’re emotionally involved, that’s very nice of you. It shows that you care, but you’re clearly not being careful not to get sucked into complacency. If you have the Moroccan people’s best interest at heart, you shouldn’t let emotions cloud your reason, you should encourage them and seek ways to empower them instead. How can you speak of a victory for those who chose not to vote? This is the time when you should point out the negative in choosing NOT to participate in the principal formation years of their young democracy. Government is going to take place with or without their votes anyway, wouldn’t it be better if they had at least some say in the final outcome. Morocco’s determination to change its ways for a better future has been heard throughout the world and many nations have demonstrated their willingness to support Morocco by investing not only in its business sector but in the private sector as well. Democracy doesn’t happen overnight, it takes everyone’s participation and hard work. We may not get it right at first, but we’re at least working on it. Are you willing to jump in and help work out the kinks or are you comfortable wallowing in other people’s misery? :P
@Myrtus — I think you misunderstood my intention here. I sympathize with those who boycotted the vote because they don’t want to legitimize a system where their vote will have no impact, unless constitutional reform allows the elected government to have real power. But while I sympathize (as long as it’s a conscious choice, not mere apathy) this isn’t my own choice. I would have voted for the PSU as a progressive party that supports constitutional reform. I think this comment of mine on a previous post speaks to your concerns. I’ll quote the conclusion of that comment below. I think you’ll find that it agrees with you!
“Here is where I stand. Whether in the U.S. or Morocco, every vote matters, but voting alone is not enough. We need to magnify our vote through citizen action. We need to practice our basic rights, such as the right to organize or the right to freedom of speech. We need to work with those around us, educate through example, and rather than waiting for permission from above, transform society from within.”
Oh pheewww I’m glad you said that, but I’m still a little confused with your previous statement.
You say:
“We need to magnify our vote through citizen action.”
Yet the way you put it in your post here made you sound as if you approve of inaction as an action itself in protest against the system. It sounded very disappointing, I did not expect that from you.