Category Archives: Economy

Bastard Modernization


Tangier, August 14, 2009. Click image to see a larger version.

Not long ago, I wrote an article called “Why Is Morocco Stuck?” in which I blamed Morocco’s lack of progress on two things: “the political and economic system, and the mentality of the people.” This provoked the following exchange with one of my readers, which I think is worth reproducing here.

reader: You’re naive to say it’s the people’s responsibility. Take those magazines that always get slammed illegally but soundly by the authorities. That’s terror against a corporation, and the authorities don’t fear public opinion. So what do you think can happen to individuals put in the same situation? Simply worse.

I won’t say we’re stuck, we’re just slow. Some people just have to bear with it because change is progressive. I think you’re being naive, but also impatient. I believe that if Morocco becomes a lot better in the future, with democracy and clean streets, you probably won’t like it.

eatbees: You mention the dangers involved when individuals speak out, but my point is that people need to take this risk in large numbers, because the authorities can’t use their techniques against millions at the same time. Yet this requires a change in mentality.

For the moment, the majority accepts things the way they are. They’re ruled by “fear and ignorance” as a friend of mine says, and the authorities get their way. But African Americans in the 1950s and 1960s, or those living under communism or third world dictatorships (Chile, Philippines, South Africa…) changed things by no longer accepting the way things were, and the regime was unable to put down this new mentality.

So the situation in Morocco is first of all the responsibility of the authorities, but it’s also the responsibility of the people, because the people accept it—and in many cases, actively collaborate! As a guy I know recently put it, “The mafia is us. We’re all part of the corrupt system in one way or another. It won’t change until we change ourselves.”

I don’t know why you say, “If Morocco becomes a lot better in the future, with democracy and clean streets, you probably won’t like it.” If a traditional beach is destroyed to put in fancy apartments and cafés for the rich (and launder their money from trafficking) then it’s true I won’t like it. But if Moroccans are able to choose their own leaders and plan their own destiny, and this results in cleaner streets, better schools and a more modern lifestyle, why wouldn’t I like it?

reader: Maybe you don’t say it, but it’s what I think. I can imagine cities after getting modernized, turning to be exactly the same as Casa or Rabat, which you and I dislike.

eatbees: There’s good and bad forms of modernization. Casa has its good points and bad points. What I like there is the freedom there, and the autonomous culture among young people. What I don’t like is the chaos, pollution and lack of planning.

Too often in Morocco, modernization is what I call “bastard modernization,” which is either bricolage to serve the needs of the moment, with no thought to sustainability; or projects designed to enrich the interests of well-positioned individuals without serving the needs of the people from the bottom up.

Maybe any developing nation has to start this way. I guess the U.S. began with bricolage too, and evolved its ideas of citizenship and humanistic development later. But there have been so many theorists studying how to integrate economic development with concerns for the environment, sustainability, local tastes, and a healthy quality of life. What I’d love to see in Morocco is development driven by the choices of citizens, aided by experts, and designed for high quality over the long term. I don’t think that would turn out like Casa today!

Bricolage, Blessing or Curse?

“Bricolage” is a French word that means putting something together out of available scraps, rather than, for example, inserting Part A into Slot D according to the directions on the ready-to-assemble kit; or drawing up a plan, obtaining the best tools and materials for the task, and executing the plan with attention to quality and detail. Bricolage is probably the best metaphor for the way the average Moroccan lives his daily life.

Examples of bricolage go from the most simple, such as using laundry detergent to wash floors and dishes rather than buying a specialized soap for each task, or making folded cones out of old newspapers to hold the roasted nuts sold at neighborhood stands; to the more complex, such as installing a light switch in an awkward location because that’s as far as the wire will reach, or sharing shirts and pants with one’s brother so each can have a wardrobe instead of a single garment, or the system of “grand taxis” which allow Moroccans to travel to places buses won’t go, so long as they’re willing to squeeze six people into a space meant for four, and wait until enough people gather who are going to the same place. The ultimate example of bricolage is the Moroccan shantytown built from rocks and scraps of metal; or on a less desperate level, the sort of neighborhood where homes are built as the owners can afford them, a floor or two at a time, with empty lots in between waiting for their neighbors to pull together enough money to begin their own project.

Bricolage is the opposite of professionalism, which has standards and procedures for everything. I used to like Moroccan bricolage, considering it an art form, a sign of an irrepressible free spirit and the Moroccan genius for improvisation. In the West where everything works as it should, we are in danger of losing our spirit of self-reliance, and becoming paralyzed should things ever actually break down. Moroccans, however, deal with broken-down systems on a daily basis, so their sense of improvisation is finely tuned. I considered this a competitive advantage.

When I expressed these feelings to a friend of mine a couple of weeks ago, he objected that bricolage is in fact an obstacle to development. He is an adept at web design who believes in doing things the right way. He pointed out that bricolage is a response to a lack of resources; and he seemed to feel that adapting things to tasks for which they aren’t really suited is an unhealthy mentality. He pointed out that in the West, when we improvise—as in the famous case of the first PC, cobbled together in a garage in Silicon Valley—we do so within a system where everything works and the material resources are readily available. Bricolage, however, is a desperate response to a system in disrepair. My friend sees it as a sign of Moroccans’ misfortune, not as something to celebrate. Perhaps it is even a factor in perpetuating the breakdown, by accepting it as normal and multiplying it into the future. More professionalism is needed in Morocco, my friend would argue. The solution is to reform the broken-down system and do things the right way in the first place. However, this requires a material investment that is not being made; and bricolage is an engrained habit that will be hard to break.

If we define bricolage as a lack of appropriate resources, we can see it as the curse of the Moroccan economy and of society as a whole. An educated woman who works as a civil servant recently gave me an example. It’s well known that Morocco produces many college graduates who are unable to find jobs at the professional level. As she put it, thanks to a flawed educational system that isn’t in sync with the needs of the market, a lot of these graduates are unqualified for the jobs they seek. “They don’t even know how to write a simple letter.” As a result, they are forced to look for work as waiters, cab drivers, carpenters or house painters, where there is already plenty of competition and they aren’t qualified either. “Such jobs tend to require either manual skill or brute force, and they don’t have it.” So what do they do? She gave the example of a young man who goes into business as a subcontractor, rounding up work crews for construction projects. Each morning he goes to the place where day laborers wait looking for work, and transports them to the site. He pays them and takes his percentage, all of it under the table, without taxes or benefits of any kind. This is bricolage in the domain of employment. It’s true that a college graduate has found work, and is giving work to others, but it isn’t a sign of health in the Moroccan economy. To the contrary, he isn’t working in the field he trained for, he isn’t contributing his taxes to the national budget, and there is no security in what he’s doing of the sort that would allow him to plan for his future or start a family. The moment he gets sick and is unable to work, he will find himself without income, unable to support himself.

What sort of economy treats bricolage as a normal thing? It can be argued that such an economy is based on exploitation. Rather than investing its resources in the material well-being of its workers, the Moroccan economy prefers to take advantage of a population desperate for work and struggling to survive from day to day. A friend of mine gave the example of a shop that sells trifles like nuts and candy, where a man might work for as little as 500 dirhams a month, or two dollars a day. Such workers spend their entire lives in the shop, sleeping there at night, opening it in the morning, cooking their meals there, and never leaving even to drink a coffee in a popular cafe. If they are frugal enough, even with that meager income they can send money back to their families in the countryside, or save enough over the years to open a shop of their own. But the shop owner is taking advantage of them in the same way that employers in Europe and the U.S. take advantage of immigrant labor, paying a wage that others are unwilling to accept, and driving down wages for everyone in the process. Another example is a computer repair technician I knew in Tangier, who earned about $250 a month despite having a specialized skill. The money he earned wasn’t enough to pay his monthly expenses, and he was always borrowing from his boss or falling behind on his rent. Worse, after two years on the job he was still being paid under the table, so he had no benefits and no job security. I advised him to talk to his boss and try to negotiate a better deal, but he refused, saying, “He’ll simply tell me there are plenty of others like me, waiting at the door for a chance to take my place.”

So bricolage in Morocco isn’t the same as improvisation in a developed nation. It isn’t exotic, romantic, or an art form. It may be the sign of an inventive spirit, but more essentially it’s a response to a dysfunctional and even exploitative system. I now accept that my friend is right, and bricolage is an obstacle to Morocco’s development. Rather than eternally struggling to make the best of what is available, Moroccans should learn to demand the best resources for the task. This will require investment across all levels of society, and a transformation in the way Moroccans think, so they no longer accept a life built from scraps as normal.

Why Is Morocco Stuck?

When I reflect on the stuckness of Morocco I reflect on two things: the political and economic system, and the mentality of the people. It’s true that there is ongoing development on a material level, development that is visible, particularly in the major cities: new highways, communications infrastructure, commercial and residential buildings, resorts and spas, improved public spaces, a major port in Tangier. However, it must be said that no development takes place in Morocco unless it benefits the political and economic elite and further enhances their position. Their monopoly over the life of the nation is clear, and ultimately it all flows back to “la volonté du roi” who in addition to being the constitutional center of decision making in Morocco, controls massive private interests at all levels of the Moroccan economy, even down to the manufacture of cooking oil or the handing out of taxi medallions (grimas) as a perk of personal privilege. As far as the mentality of the people is concerned, it seems that however much they may complain, most are easily distracted into acts of personal desperation, hedonism, or advantage-seeking within the existing system, rather than engaging in the more difficult task of collective self-criticism and building a better world, which would entail at least the risk of crossing the famous “lignes rouges.” As a result, after venting their frustration for a few minutes they lapse into the default mode of quiet resignation, and the cycle of “fear and ignorance,” as a friend put it, continues undisturbed.

The Morocco Show

This piece was written during the Gnawa Festival in Essaouira at the end of June, after I’d been back in Morocco for four days. Mohammed is a friend who lives in Essaouira, a journalist and activist who was previously referenced in my post “Waiting for the Rain.”

Even though I’ve been away from Morocco a long time, the details of buildings, dress and behavior are instantly familiar to me, and the rhythms of life envelop and somehow comfort me. I guess this makes it hard for me to fully relate to a statement like Mohammed’s that “Morocco is a hard place to live in,” even though the evidence is all around me. Last night a discussion broke out between Mohammed and another friend as to whether Morocco is a “horrible” country as Mohammed put it, or merely a “cruel” one as my other friend said. My friend defended the idea that a country can be cruel without being horrible, which led to the question of how Morocco can be cruel and generous at the same time. I pointed out that Moroccans feel a moral obligation to help each other, even strangers, while Americans tend to feel that other people’s problems are none of their business. My friend feels that if Morocco ever succeeds in developing itself to the European level, this generosity will disappear because it’s a holdover from Morocco’s communal past. In fact, he feels that this type of generosity is actually an obstacle to Morocco’s development, because it goes against individualism which is a necessary condition for progress.

I don’t know if it’s just because I’m at the Gnawa Festival, which attracts eccentric young people after all, but there seems to be a wider range of self-expression in Morocco than I’ve seen in the past. I’ve seen a punk with a mohawk and a Ramones T-shirt, an emo with a buzz cut and long locks falling into his eyes, chin goatees, specially cut sideburns, afros, dreadlocks, even the occasional piercing or tattoo. The question is whether all this will lead to expression on any other level, as happened in the 1960s in the West when youthful self-expression mutated into political struggle. I suspect that most of my friends here would say definitely not. In fact, they would call such expression a ruse, a false freedom, a distraction from the real problem which is, as Mohammed put it, that the rich run the country in their own interest. Just as it always has, power in Morocco comes from the top, so nothing ever happens here unless it’s in the interest of the power elite, the Makhzen.

In this vein Mohammed mentioned an article he’d written in which he traced Gnawa back to its historic origin as the music of slaves, and proposed that modern promoters of Gnawa are creating a new generation of slaves, in this case the slaves of globalization, the global consumer economy that in Morocco profits only the rich. As we watched an open air concert I proposed, “So the rich want to turn Morocco into a show for foreigners to get their money, rather than developing the country in the interests of its people,” and he replied, “That’s it in a nutshell.” The Makhzen is happy to see the young poor of Morocco amuse and distract themselves with hairstyles and such, because they expect that’s as far as the self-expression will go. Meanwhile they could care less about the future of these young people, at best seeing them as props in the show they’re putting on, a show called Morocco.

Data Isn’t Free

Here’s some interesting, depressing comments on the failed economics of delivering high-bandwidth content to the developing world.

    Last year, Veoh, a video-sharing site operated from San Diego, decided to block its service from users in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe, citing the dim prospects of making money and the high cost of delivering video there.
    “I believe in free, open communications,” Dmitry Shapiro, the company’s chief executive, said. “But these people are so hungry for this content. They sit and they watch and watch and watch. The problem is they are eating up bandwidth, and it’s very difficult to derive revenue from it.”

That’s the problem with you people, you’re just too hungry! Taking food from the rich people’s tables and holding your hands out for more. Now where have I heard that before?

    “It’s a problem every Internet company has,” said Michelangelo Volpi, chief executive of Joost, a video site with half its audience outside the United States.
    “Whenever you have a lot of user-generated material, your bandwidth gets utilized in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, where bandwidth is expensive and ad rates are ridiculously low,” Mr. Volpi said. If Web companies “really want to make money, they would shut off all those countries.”

So far, apparently, Veoh is the only company to take this drastic step. But if you wake up one day to find your favorite sites like YouTube or Facebook blocked, don’t blame your local dictator — at least, not yet. Instead, blame capitalism. Or better yet, blame yourselves! You’re downloading content without being good consumers.

Financial Crisis = Criminal Fraud?

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This interview is half an hour long, but it is lively and, for anyone concerned about the financial crisis in the U.S., well worth watching.

William K. Black, a former regulator who helped resolve the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s, speaks to journalist Bill Moyers about our current financial meltdown. In his view, we are living through the consequences of a deliberate, coordinated, criminal fraud involving mortgage lenders, investment banks and rating agencies, all of whom conspired to make huge profits by repackaging worthless loans as safe, secure investements. People who knew what they were doing made a lot of money lying to the rest of us, and what’s remarkable is that most of these people are still running their institutions today.

What’s worse, the government is helping to enable the fraud in two ways. First, it is feeding the institutions tens of billions in taxpayer dollars to keep them alive, and second, it is helping them to conceal the true nature of the crisis from the American people. Despite Barack Obama’s promises of change on the campaign trail, his treasury secretary Timothy Geithner is, in Black’s words, a “failed regulator” who should have blown the whistle on this fraud while he was head of the New York Federal Reserve, but did not; and national economic advisor Larry Summers is one of the architects of the late-1990s deregulation that made this catastrophe possible in the first place. Black, an Obama supporter, feels that his presidency will be ruined unless he quickly reboots with a new economic team committed to cleanup rather than coverup.

In a similar vein, Shock Doctrine author Naomi Klein has just written an article in which she describes the disappointment felt by Obama supporters when they see their man sell out to failed ideologies, in both economic and foreign policy. She calls on us to stop waiting for Obama to deliver the change on his own, and start pushing back from below.

    If the superfan culture that brought Obama to power is going to transform itself into an independent political movement, one fierce enough to produce programs capable of meeting the current crises, we are all going to have to stop hoping and start demanding.

Time to Choose: Us or Them?

Dear President Obama,

Let me try to be clear about this. We hired you to make sweeping changes, not to be a servant of the status quo. Yet on the economic crisis in particular, you seem to be a prisoner of a complacent, self-serving orthodoxy that is preventing you from doing what needs to be done. Increasingly, you are seen as serving the interests of privileged elites, rather than the interests of those who elected you. You listen to the representatives of those elites, like Larry Summers, not to those who understood the problem early on, like Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini or Nassim Taleb. It escapes our understanding why this should be so. In the face of the most grave crisis of our lifetimes, why are you paralyzed? Given that you promised an administration whose decisions would be based on facts and sound analysis, why are you ignoring what is obvious to the rest of us, that our nation’s economic policy is held hostage to the whims of the very people who brought this disaster upon us?

Two opinion pieces today make this point more eloquently than I could, one by Frank Rich in the New York Times, the other by William Greider in the Washington Post. Their appearance on the same day is coincidental, but they are really companion pieces. I assume that you’ve read them both, and considered their arguments. I’m writing to you now to second their urgent appeal. Both pieces make the point that you have a choice before you, between the will of the people and the will of the elites. Until now, inexplicably to many of us, you’ve tried to avoid a rupture with the elites, even though their failed, self-serving policies got us to where we are today. But time is running out, and having it both ways will no longer be possible. If you wish to salvage your presidency and its promise of transformative change, you need to convince the people that you are on our side, working for those who elected you.

In his article, “Has a ‘Katrina Moment’ Arrived?” Frank Rich writes:

    Unless and until Barack Obama addresses the full depth of Americans’ anger with his full arsenal of policy smarts and political gifts, his presidency and, worse, our economy will be paralyzed….
    Of course most Americans don’t know how A.I.G. brought the world’s financial system to near-ruin or what credit-default swaps are. They may not even know what A.I.G. stands for. But Americans do make the connection between their fears about their own jobs and their broad understanding of the A.I.G. debacle.
    They know that the corporate bosses who may yet lay them off have sometimes been as obscenely overcompensated for failure as Wall Street’s bonus babies…. Since Americans get the big picture of this inequitable system, that grotesque reality dwarfs any fine print. That’s why it doesn’t matter that the disputed bonuses at A.I.G. amount to less than one-tenth of one percent of its bailout…. These prominent players are just the handiest camera-ready triggers for the larger rage.
    In his town-hall meeting in Costa Mesa, Calif., on Wednesday, [Obama] described the A.I.G. bonuses as merely a symptom of “a culture where people made enormous sums of money taking irresponsible risks that have now put the entire economy at risk.” But rhetoric won’t tamp down the anger out there…. We must have governance to match the message.
    To get ahead of the anger, Obama must do what he has repeatedly promised but not always done: make everything about his economic policies transparent and hold every player accountable. His administration must start actually answering the questions that officials like Geithner and Summers routinely duck….
    Why has there been so little transparency and so much evasiveness so far? The answer, I fear, is that too many of the administration’s officials are too marinated in the insiders’ culture to police it, reform it or own up to their own past complicity with it.

In his own article, “Obama Told Us to Speak Out, but Is He Listening?” William Greider takes the argument a step further.

    During the campaign, Barack Obama beckoned Americans to put aside their cynicism about politics and re-engage as active citizens. They are now doing so with red-hot anger…. The president is now trapped between these two realms—the governing elites who decide things and the people who are governed. Which side is he on…?
    Something fundamental has been altered in American politics. Encouraged by Obama’s message of hope, agitated by darkening economic prospects, many people have thrown off sullen passivity and are trying to reclaim their role as citizens. This disturbs the routines of Washington but has great potential for restoring a functioning democracy. Timely intervention by the people could save the country from some truly bad ideas now circulating in Washington and on Wall Street….
    During the past nine months, gigantic financial bailouts amid collapsing economic life made visible the crippling divide between governing elites and citizens at large. People everywhere learned a blunt lesson about power, who has it and who doesn’t. They watched Washington rush to rescue the very financial interests that caused the catastrophe. They learned that government has plenty of money to spend when the right people want it. “Where’s my bailout,” became the rueful punch line at lunch counters and construction sites nationwide….
    Elite opinion wants to empower the Federal Reserve to act as the “super-cop” protecting the financial system against systemic risk in the future…. A new regulatory regime that puts the secretive central bank in charge of everything…would effectively legitimize the existence of a corporate state. This concentrated power would be neither socialism nor capitalism, but a grotesque hybrid that combines the worst qualities of both systems….
    Barack Obama can resist all this, if he chooses, but he seems conflicted. Obama’s approach so far is devoted to restoring Wall Street’s famous names, and his economic advisers tell him this is the “responsible” imperative…. Obama evidently agrees. He does not seem to grasp that the tone-deaf technocrats are leading him into a dead-end.
    The president needs to hear a second opinion—millions of them.

So far, Mr. President, there is no sign that you are hearing the essence of what we are saying. Those who stole our retirement savings and brought the world to the brink of collapse must to be held to account. The corrpution and self-dealing must stop. But more than that, the whole inequitable system must be remade, on entirely different principles—transparency and prosperity for all, rather than speculation and insider advantage. Is capitalism the engine of progress for everyone, or just a few? We await the proof.

Meanwhile I sit here despairing, as the man we elected to bring change to Washington morphs into a servant of the status quo—a status quo which you admit has failed thoroughly. So why do you still listen to its architects, and ignore those who warned against its abuses? I believe your heart is in the right place, and your mind grasps the problem, but something is holding you back. I’m aware that you are cautious by nature, even conservative in the sense of “conserving,” but there are times when the only way to conserve is to cut away what is rotten. This is one of those times. Your ability to do so rests on the confidence of the people, and that confidence, while vast, is not infinite. Allow me to join my voice to those urging a change of heart before it’s too late.

Behind the Crisis

If we’re going to learn anything from the economic crisis we’re in, we need to make sure that the same elites aren’t in power coming out of it that got us into it to begin with. And of course, those elites are doing all they can, in the media and in the halls of government, to make sure their power remains invisible and untouched.

Here’s the first article I’ve seen that gets to the heart of the matter:

    Corporate directors and managers have long defined how people live, what people do…. For generations, they’ve been writing our laws, propagandizing our children, dictating policy, plundering the planet….
    Armed with “freedom of speech,” “due process,” “equal protection of the law,” the “commerce clause,” “the contracts clause,” and other constitutional powers…corporate directors and managers have been making “private” decisions, which in an authentic democracy must be made by people in community via democratic processes.
    Their real bottom line is not that their corporations are “just too big to fail.” It’s that without giant corporations, we helpless human earthlings could do nothing to meet our needs. That we would languish freezing, starving, unemployed, unentertained, vulnerable, in the dark….
    After every financial cataclysm of the past century, people have been assured that the problem was “greed and excess”….
    But after the Madoffs of every generation are all locked up, most of the corporate directors and managers who “legally” plunged the nation into these messes continue governing over the nation…. They keep spending the people’s money to set things right. And they keep writing We the People’s laws.
    Isn’t that what’s happening today?

I suspect that the same problem exists, or is even worse, in many nations outside the U.S. where government of, by and for the people is less well defined—where the moneyed elites don’t even bother hiding their belief that the power of the state exists to benefit them.

If any good can come of this crisis, it’s that for a brief moment, the raw mechanisms of money and power have been exposed. The latest example of this is the arrogance of A.I.G. in using hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money to give bonuses to the same people who brought this crisis upon us. I can only hope we see this as a learning opportunity. If, going forward, we don’t figure out how to take back control of our government from the corporations, shame on us.

UPDATE: Discussing the A.I.G. debacle, Josh Marshall digs into the issue of “who’s in control.”

    The problem is what appears to be the president’s mortifying impotence in the face of bankers and financiers who created the problem…. Anyone can look at that and see that the equation of power and accountability is all screwed up.

Inequality and the Global Crisis

The global financial system is broken, and the global economy that depends on it is in rapid collapse. The global system is broken above all because of reckless decisions made in the U.S., but despite the fact that it’s America’s fault, the rest of the world is aware that no one but America can fix the problem. The U.S. is still the world’s largest economy. Like it or not, the prosperity of people living in Korea, Argentina and South Africa is tied to American prosperity.

Since taking office 50 days ago, President Barack Obama has acted with amazing speed, given the contentious policital climate and the paralysis gripping Washington before his arrival in the White House. On February 17, Obama signed a stimulus bill that is one of the largest pieces of economic legislation in U.S. history. The administration has outlined programs to shore up the banking sector and provide relief to those struggling to stay in their homes. On February 24, Obama gave a powerful speech to Congress outlining his ambitious priorities for the coming year, including reforms in energy, health care and education. No one can accuse him of being timid in the face of a crisis. But it is still far too early to judge whether these ideas will work.

There has been a lot written in recent months about the decline of American power, and the unravelling of global stability as a result. On one end, there are articles like this one by Tom Friedman, which quotes South Korean officials reaffirming America as the world’s indispensable nation. “No other country can substitute for the U.S. … Only the U.S. can lead the world,” says one. “There is no one who can replace America. Without American leadership, there is no leadership,” says another. Their hope is that America will regain its strength, because the rest of the world’s fortunes are riding on it. But far more common, these days, is fear of what will happen if the system we’ve been living in for the past generation isn’t repaired quickly. A recent article by Michael T. Klare in TomDispatch paints a picture of “A Planet at the Brink.”

    As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants, and ethnic minorities. … It is entirely possible…that, as the economic crisis worsens, some of these incidents will metastasize into far more intense and long-lasting events: armed rebellions, military takeovers, civil conflicts, even economically fueled wars between states.
    Every outbreak of violence has its own distinctive origins and characteristics. All, however, are driven by a similar combination of anxiety about the future and lack of confidence in the ability of established institutions to deal with the problems at hand. … Look for the prices of wheat, soybeans, and possibly rice to rise in the coming months—just when billions of people in the developing world are sure to see their already marginal incomes plunging due to the global economic collapse.

After describing civil unrest that has already taken place in some 20 nations around the world—”protests against rising unemployment, government ineptitude, and the unaddressed needs of the poor,” driven by “economic anxiety and a pervasive feeling that someone else’s group was faring better than yours”—Klare concludes, “It is already essentially impossible to keep track of all such episodes, suggesting that we are on the verge of a global pandemic of economically driven violence.”

He calls our attention to the fears of two pillars of the global establishment, the World Bank and the U.S. intelligence community. Last fall, the World Bank wrote in a survey:

    Should credit markets fail to respond…the consequences for developing countries could be very serious. Such a scenario would be characterized by…substantial disruption and turmoil, including bank failures and currency crises, in a wide range of developing countries…. All of the attendant repercussions, including increased poverty and unemployment, would be inevitable.

Admiral Dennis C. Blair, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, recently testified before a Senate committee:

    The primary near-term security concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications. … The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to U.S. strategic interests. … Economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one- to two-year period.

In a similar vein, it has been reported that President Obama has added global economic unrest to the concerns he hears about in his daily national security briefings. Time Magazine elaborated by imagining how economic troubles might destabilize Egypt and Pakistan.

    Authoritarian regimes…that keep the peace on behalf of the West could be toppled if they lose the funds they distribute to placate their restive populations. The riots triggered in Egypt last year by sharp increases in the price of wheat were a reminder of that danger, while Pakistan’s basket-case economy could act as a significant multiplier on the instability that already plagues the troubled
    nuclear-armed nation.

Klare sums up his case for a “global pandemic of economically driven violence” this way:

    At a popular level…the basic picture is clear enough: continued economic decline combined with a pervasive sense that existing systems and institutions are incapable of setting things right is already producing a potentially lethal brew of anxiety, fear, and rage. Popular explosions of one sort or another are inevitable.

To some degree, this strikes me as the worries of those who, like me, have the luxury of sitting calmly and viewing the world from our privileged perspective. Our sleep may be troubled by the thought of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands if Pakistan falls apart, but that isn’t likely, and the riots or revolutions that do occur in the developing world aren’t likely to touch us in any direct way. Whatever suffering occurs in China, India, Egypt, Brazil or even Eastern Europe, the West will remain comparatively secure, with well-stocked cupboards to ride out the storm.

The advantages of wealth become particularly useful in times like this. The poor suffer most from any crisis, whether political, economic or natural (such as Hurricane Katrina), while the rich are well insulated and recover sooner. This is true not just when comparing rich nations to poor ones, but when comparing rich to poor within any nation. If factories are closing in the American Midwest, their executives go to Congress looking for handouts. If crowds are rioting in the streets of Egypt over the price of bread, the elites take a vacation on the Riviera while the army sorts things out.

Is there any chance that the global crisis we are facing will force deeper reforms than in the past, breaking the backs of the elites who have profited until now? For whatever reason, calls for far-reaching reform have been rare. We all know that the excesses of capitalism caused the crisis, yet we hope to revive the old ways once the crisis is over. Yet if the downturn is long enough and deep enough, it could turn into an anarchic spiral in which no one wins, with rich and poor suffering alike.

To avoid this, we need to admit that it may be impossible to return to the magical days of easy growth and abundant resources. What if what we are living through now is a crisis of scarcity? What if much of what we’ve called wealth for the last fifty years was illusory? If our way of life was unsustainable in the first place, even the best policies will never rebuild what we had. In that case, this may be our chance to consider how to build a more sustainable system, in which the inequality of wealth among nations, or between rich and poor within nations, is no longer the engine of prosperity for a few.